The recent news on digital books suggests 2009 will be looked back on as the turning point, the time when e-books became a legitimate force in the reader’s market. 2010 is predicted to hold an explosion of the e-book business.
There are big publishing interests attempting to fight against the move to digital books by withholding digital versions of their big titles several months, forcing avid readers to purchase the hardcover versions for $27 instead of Amazon’s kindle version for $9.99.
Within five years, those big publishing companies will have lost that battle, and the e-book market will have absolutely exploded. Completely taken over. Seriously. Quote me. December 18, 2014: e-books are enormously more popular than “binding with attached fragment of tree.”
Here is why people are fighting the e-book avalanche, why they will lose, and why I think that’s probably fine.
Why They Fight
Publishing houses are fighting because:
1. They make a lot more on a hardcover book than they will make on a digital version.
2. 6 of them currently dominate the market, and they will not be able to easily transition into the digital world
3. For all the pretending that digital books are “unsharable,” the same twelve year olds who can hack into the iPhone, the Pentagon, and your personal computer will easily find a way to make e-books as shareable as mp3s are. The publishers have to know this, and know they will face the same annihilation that the recording industry faces.
Agents:
1. I bet some agents fear the above scenario — the dismantling of the publishing houses — and how it leads directly to them losing their jobs. Agents are the middle man between the writer and the publishing house. They make their money off advances those houses pay. If those houses can’t pay advances because they can’t make money, can an agent still exist?
Bookstores:
1. Small, independent bookstores are already dying, and this will kill them further. Except in the sense that they become “Antique Book Stores” who carry “books” the way a record store today carries vinyls.
2. Borders/Barnes and Noble will have to completely transform their business, I don’t even know how, or disappear.
Authors:
1. The “Metallica” authors will complain their work is being stolen (it is) when seven-year-olds hack into and alter the digital formats so they are fully transferable.
2. Some authors seem to think it’s critical to have the publishing houses “screen out” weak writing and be the gatekeepers of good writing.
Readers:
1. I love tree books! They smell good and feel good and taste good!
2. Readers like bookstores. I love to just go be in them, even big ones like borders. I like the cafe. I like the couches. I like reading and not paying for magazines.
3. Good-old-day-ism. Humans tend to believe that what has been happening in the past is the best way for something to happen, and we also tend to view particular habitual behavior associated with technology as the only use for that technology (for example, we imagined the future of telephone usage to be video conferencing, rather than imagining the future of telephone usage as being permanent interconnection to the world through the internet, and cultural shifts making it acceptable to stay in touch with friends exclusively through text rather than talk). Online forums on this ebook subject suggest complaints sound a bit like this: “Soon people will be bluetoothing the ebooks to their earbuds and LISTENING to the whole damn thing, rather than actually pouring over a story and becoming emotionally involved in it!” or “Who want’s to cuddle up near the fire with an electronic tablet?” or “Kids these days want everything so fast…reading is about slowing down and checking out, about driving to the bookstore and browsing the shelf,” or, “A full bookshelf is a beauty never to be replaced by a full file,” or, my favorite: “In ten years I’ll ask my son to let me borrow a book, and he’ll look at me funny and say, ‘you can’t lend books.’” (Again, does anyone seriously think we won’t be sharing digital copies of books—that the publishers will succeed in locking the digital files away, one reader per download, one week of sharing allowed? haha, yeah, sure.)
Why They Lose
Recession
1. A certain large number of people who would have otherwise held onto their book-purchasing habits will shift to digital because a) they are moving to a smaller apartment and they realize that it’s both cheaper to move and store digital files, or b) they can get all their old favorite classics for a buck on their reader, or c) the cost savings of a $9.99 book are so significant as to merit them taking the plunge into cuddling up by the fire with a metal tablet (and by the way, they kinda like the tablet, because it’s light, doesn’t hurt their wrists, doesn’t flip closed, doesn’t require constant shifting, and soon—astoundingly soon—mere pages into their first ebook experience—they realize that it’s the story that they were always in love with, not the tree sheets).
2. Publishers and bookstores, as their numbers continue to flounder, take a leap into the digital market in hopes of surviving. It won’t work—they’ll still sink—but when the ship is on fire, you jump.
Youth
1. They are really smart, but they won’t really read books until books make themselves available to them, and they will take advantage of them when they do. That might be after they can share audioversions of them for free (illegally or otherwise) with each other, and when they can amass an enormous library in an afternoon, and plenty of “good-old-days-ers” will feel that this is a complete defamation of literature, but regardless of all complaints, it will happen. Suddenly, instead of the average kid owning and listening to 10 CDs and the radio, the average kid owns and listens to hundreds (and no radio). Same, but for books. Reading and listening.
Why That’s Okay
1. I’m an optimist and find it’s best to be happy about inevitable things.
2. Students are going to freaking love digital books. Undergrads will love love love fully searchable textbooks and novels. As it is now, students read about the first six pages of a text book, then attempt to cram before an exam, mostly off notes, cracking a book here and there. They read the occasional chapter from the assigned novel. Imagine the lecturer/professor assigning weekend reading circa 2018: “Read up on errors in enzyme creation, and evidence for and against punctuated equilibrium. There’s a few paragraphs of summary early in the text, a nice summary somewhere later on, and if I were you I’d look at the case study.” Of course, students legitimately interested in this aspect of the text will be able to link immediately to external sources cited (as links) in the text, to blogs, news articles, and academic articles on the subject. Imagine the English professor: “For your essay, I want you to pick 2 or three reoccuring words — words that show up again and again throughout the six hundred pages — and analyze the authors choice of use. The idea here is to take a look at how this author cultivates particular themes subtly but clearly intentionally.”
3. Graduate students and researchers will absolutely freaking freaking love it. Every single book just became fully, 100% indexed. As search function improves, it will be unimaginably helpful (literally, we can’t imagine). But even with our current search capabilities: “Where was that single sentence that I wanted to quote?” Oh yeah, page 2,204. “Where’s that endnote? footnote? citation?” right here, in text, as an electronic link directly to the source. To the freaking page. “Do any other texts in this library use this spelling of the ancient culture I’m writing about?” Ok, six other books, one published in 1858. And look, nineteen peer reviewed articles.
4. As a future author: Currently it’s estimated (in I think it was the Jan/Feb Poets and Writer’s, when a half drunken agent speculated this and a second half drunken agent seconded) that about 100 authors in the US make enough money writing books to live off. Whether or not that number drops really matters only a whole lot to about 100 people in the US, and I’m not going to be one of them (neither are you, by the way). We know we’ll have to teach or otherwise work anyway. The difference, then, might be that we don’t get a 50,000 dollar advance. We get a 0 dollar advance, but we are lucky enough, and good enough writers, maybe, to get an editor and a print of a couple hundred hard cover books (like vinyls). On our digital copies, the unpirated versions, we include video introduction and interviews etc., and perhaps that radio essay we wrote that didn’t make it on This American Life, and so, we, as people, are in some ways more connected to our work in our reader’s mind. More than just a name on the cover, but a producer of an full digital experience—a bit more like an album of music. Our text is interactive, whether it be a researched nonfiction work that provides links to various web resources or cited sources, or merely pertinent footnotes that otherwise would seem tacky or just take up too much print space. Of course, we can include within our digital books updating information about our new publications and our book tours—we could even have a blog within the book, so a reader can type a question while reading, and an author can respond. The possibilities are actually quite diverse, and there is plenty of room for art.
Secondly, I do believe the digital revolution of books will give me a lot more readers, particularly young readers and international audiences. Books and text books will also be more affordable and accesible for impoverished populations worldwide. I do make the assumption that broadband internet will be available in a lot of places worldwide that it currently isn’t available in.
5. Obviously, it can’t hurt to not be destroying as many trees. I don’t know enough to make any passionate comment on this. For all I know most books are printed on recycled paper. I don’t know.
6. The more we get comfortable reading digitally, the less we see digital as being ‘lower quality’ than print, so prestigious literary journals would be able to publish digitally while maintaining more of a sense of prestige. This saves money and makes them less dependent on flaky university funding and subscriptions.
What Do We Lose?
I think it’s hard to say. We definitely lose jobs in the industry, which sucks (I think, because I think it sounds fun to work in the industry as it currently is). Also:
1. The accidental discovery of connections between two things that comes inadvertently as a result of old fashioned, slow research. And yet, researchers who understand the importance of this will always keep classic research methods in mind, I’d imagine. I know I will.
2. The ego boost and publicity boost of getting published (I know I will miss it, but maybe other people aren’t as ego driven as me). Just like how bands these days can create great music on independent labels, I suspect the level of writing in self-published books will rise in the ebook future (currently, in the book business, self-published books are pretty bad because they are self-published BECAUSE no major press would publish them). These days, if a musician were to say they signed a deal “with a record label,” we might look at them funny. Who hasn’t? Authors might not be able to distinguish themselves the way they currently can through publication. In a way, this transition in music has led to more people actually listening to and scrutinizing bands, at all levels, rather than merely accepting something as good because it’s on the radio. Most everyone I know wouldn’t hesitate to claim that music artists on independent labels are as talented as those on major labels.
3. Do we lose author tours and book signings? I don’t know. I don’t think so. But maybe, if we lose bookstores. I tend to think we can make up for this with digital interaction and more visible connection between the writer and her book.
So, I wonder what you think